Background: The declining incidence of stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and dementia (the triple threat) in Norway encourages further investigation. We analysed the risks and trends of the three conditions using data from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD).

Methods: We used GBD 2019 estimations for age-, sex-, and risk factor-specific incidence and prevalence of “the triple threat” and their risk factor-attributed deaths and disability combined and their age-standardised rates per 100,000 population in 2019 and their changes during 1990-2019. Data are presented in means and 95% uncertainty intervals (UI).

Results: In 2019, 71.1 thousand Norwegian were living with dementia, 157.2 thousand with IHD, and 95.2 thousand with strokes. In 2019, there were 9.9 thousand (8.5 to 11.3) new cases of dementia (35.0% increase since 1990), 17.0 thousand (14.6 to 19.6) with IHD (3.6% decrease), and 8.0 thousand (7.0 to 9.1) with strokes (12.9% decrease) in Norway. During 1990-2019, their age-standardised incidence rates decreased significantly; dementia by -5.4% (-8.4 to -3.2), IHD by -30.0% (-31.4 to -28.6), and stroke by -35.3% (-38.3 to -32.2), respectively. There were significant declines in the attributable risks to both ENVIRONMENTAL and behavioural factors in Norway, but contradictory trends for metabolic risk factors during 1990-2019.

Conclusions: The risk of “the triple threat” conditions is declining in Norway, despite the increased prevalence. This offers the opportunity to find out why and how and to accelerate their joint prevention through new approaches and the promotion of the National Brain Health Strategy.

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