Abstract

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors are associated with the risk of cognitive decline and dementia. Composite CVD risk scores integrate multiple risk factors and may capture the cumulative burden of CVD risk relevant to cognitive outcomes. However, the long-term association between established CVD risk scores and subsequent dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI), and potential differences in these associations between males and females, remains insufficiently studied. This study examined the association between NORRISK 2, a CVD risk model estimating 10-year risk of fatal- and non-fatal CVD, and the presence of dementia and mild cognitive impairment (MCI) in males and females, after 22 years of follow-up.

Methods: Participants from The Trøndelag Health Study (HUNT), a longitudinal, population-based health study, were included. NORRISK 2 scores were based on data from HUNT2 (1995-1997). Cognitive status was assessed in the sub-study HUNT4 70+ (2017–2019) and categorized as cognitively unimpaired (CU), MCI, or dementia. We used multinomial logistic regression with NORRISK 2 as the predictor and cognitive status 22 years later as the main covariate.

Results: The study sample consisted of 6,971 participants (57.6% females, mean age at HUNT2 56.1 years). At HUNT4 70+, 14.0% of the participants had developed dementia, and 34.6% had developed MCI. Per one percent increase in NORRISK 2 score, the relative risk of developing dementia increased by 14% for males (relative risk ratio (RRR) = 1.14; 95% CI 1.12–1.17) and 28% for females (RRR = 1.28; 95% CI 1.25–1.31). The relative risk of developing MCI increased by 4% for men (RRR = 1.04; 95% CI 1.02–1.05) and 10% for women (RRR = 1.10; 95% CI 1.08–1.12).

Conclusion: A higher NORRISK 2 score was associated with an increased risk of dementia and MCI in both males and females, with the strongest associations observed in females.

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